Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! Lots to say, but little time.

In the meantime, a quick tidbit from the Associated Press

Full Article here

In their New Year's poll, among other unremarkable facts (e.g., 80% of people believe the minimum wage will be raised in 2007), this tidbit is buried:

25% of people expect the Second Coming of Jesus Christ...in 2007.

This is a higher percentage than I expected.

Now, in the same poll, 35% predict cancer will be cured in 2007 and 70% predict a major national disaster in the US in 2007, so I think we are looking at the tendency of people to overestimate the likelihood of rare events (and risks in particular) and underestimate the risk of more common events. One of these polls should ask the following two questions:

1. How likely is it that I will die in a natural disaster this year

2. How likely is it that I will die in a car accident this year

I am sure the former will be viewed as more likely though it is at least 2 if not 3 orders of magnitude less likely...

but there is no need to be morbid in the beginning of the new year!

Best wishes to everyone, may our minimum wages all be raised, cancer be cured and if your personal savior comes this year, so much the better!


Posted on January 2, 2007 and filed under Personal.